US-Iran Ceasefire: NYT Says War May End Without Trump Achieving Goals

Axios News reported that Pakistan has been mediating between the US and Iran for the past few weeks, and indeed, progress has been made in the last 24 hours.

On the 6th, Trump reiterated an ultimatum, demanding Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz by 8 PM Eastern Time on the 7th (8 AM Taipei time on the 8th), or face bombing of its infrastructure, even threatening to annihilate Iranian civilization overnight.

However, Pakistani Prime Minister Sharif wrote on social media X: "I sincerely request President Trump to extend the deadline by two weeks. Pakistan also sincerely requests our Iranian brothers, as a gesture of goodwill, to open the Strait of Hormuz during these two weeks. We also call on all warring parties to observe a two-week ceasefire everywhere, so that the war can ultimately end through diplomacy in the interest of long-term regional peace and stability." Axios interpreted this as providing a temporary face-saving solution for both the US and Iran.

Trump stated that based on Pakistan's request during their conversation to temporarily suspend the devastating use of force against Iran tonight, and on the premise that Iran agrees to "completely, immediately, and safely open" the Strait of Hormuz, "I agree to suspend the bombing and attacks on Iran for two weeks."

In addition to saying he had received a 10-point proposal from Iran, which he believes could serve as a viable basis for negotiations, Trump also said that most past disagreements between the US and Iran now have a consensus, and two weeks would allow the agreement to be finalized and officially take effect.

However, Iran's statement was that the Strait of Hormuz would be safely passable within two weeks, but "subject to coordination with the Iranian armed forces and considering technical limitations." The New York Times believes this means Trump might have conceded before receiving a response from the Iranian leadership. Moreover, among Iran's 10 conditions for Trump's so-called "viable basis" for negotiation, there were demands for payment of war damages to Iran and US guarantees against further aggression, which exceeded what the US would permit.

The NYT pointed out that unresolved issues still include the fate of Iran's enriched uranium and limitations on Iran's ballistic missile range and quantity. Furthermore, even a temporary ceasefire with Iran's new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei and the Revolutionary Guard would effectively mean Trump acknowledging the legitimacy of Iran's new leadership.

The NYT noted that setting an ultimatum on the 6th and threatening the annihilation of Iranian civilization earlier on the 7th was typical of Trump's high-pressure negotiation style: creating a crisis to use as leverage for a deal. However, agreeing to a ceasefire suggests Trump seemed eager to extricate himself from his previous threats and tough rhetoric.

The NYT directly stated that after more than five weeks of conflict, the two-week ceasefire is the first opportunity for renewed talks between the US and Iran since the war began, bringing relief to global markets. If the ceasefire breaks down again, it would put greater pressure on Trump, and one possibility cannot be ruled out: this war might end without Trump achieving many of his stated goals.

CNN quoted an Israeli source revealing that Israel reluctantly agreed to comply with Trump's two-week ceasefire, with Israeli officials concerned about the temporary ceasefire between the US and Iran because Israel had more goals it hoped to achieve through military action against Iran. (Compiled by Chen Yi-wei) 1150408