Behind the Scenes: China Facilitates US-Iran Ceasefire, Boosting Beijing's Leverage for Trump-Xi Summit

According to the Associated Press, China, as Iran's largest oil buyer, secretly mediated a ceasefire between the US and Iran. This move aims to stabilize the Middle East, which is crucial for China's interests, and enhance Beijing's international standing. It also provides China with increased leverage for trade negotiations during President Trump's upcoming visit next month. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz significantly impacted the Chinese economy, prompting China to cooperate with Pakistan in mediating the ceasefire. A former US State Department official noted that while it's rare for China to use its influence for others, this action allowed Beijing to portray itself as a stabilizing force and Washington as reckless.
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According to the Associated Press, three diplomats familiar with Beijing's behind-the-scenes mediation confirmed that China, as Iran's largest oil buyer, indeed used its influence to bring Iran back to the negotiating table.

With the prospect of a Middle East ceasefire still uncertain, China must now carefully consider whether to delve deeper into diplomatic waters as it weighs the impact of a long-term war on the global economy.

Middle East instability runs counter to Beijing's interests, and mediating could elevate China's international status and increase Beijing's leverage in thorny trade issues during Trump's visit next month.

Danny Russel, a former U.S. State Department official, pointed out: "It is absolutely not Beijing's style to expend its influence for the benefit of others or the public good."

The Chinese economy has already felt the pressure from Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which is the conduit for about 20% of global crude oil shipments. This blockade had a huge impact on Asia, seemingly prompting China to seek negotiations with Pakistan to help mediate a two-week US-Iran ceasefire.

A diplomat familiar with Beijing's discussions on the Middle East conflict noted that China's primary goal is ultimately "growth and development."

The diplomat, who requested anonymity, stated that the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz not only restricts crude oil supply but also cuts off important shipping lanes for Chinese exports to the Middle East, which is detrimental to China's growth and development.

Ali Wyne, a senior research adviser at the International Crisis Group, which focuses on US-China relations, pointed out: "The US and Iran were able to temporarily step back from the brink of catastrophic escalation, partly thanks to China's support for Pakistan's mediation of the ceasefire. Even if this breakthrough is short-lived, it gives Beijing another opportunity to cast itself as a stabilizing force and portray Washington as reckless."

China has privately made it clear that both the US and Iran must compromise to reach an agreement. Diplomatic sources revealed that Beijing also intends to pressure Trump to revoke sanctions on Chinese companies dealing with Iran as part of a potential peace plan. This provides Xi Jinping with some leverage at next month's Trump-Xi summit.

Yun Sun, director of the China Program at the Stimson Center, a Washington D.C. think tank, noted: "Trump is in crisis, and China is extending a helping hand. This perception alone helps to ease the atmosphere and increase negotiating leverage."

Russel, who was a senior diplomat during the Obama administration, said there are signs that Beijing believes Trump's power has weakened because Trump threatened to completely destroy Iranian power plants and other critical infrastructure if Iran did not stop blocking the Strait of Hormuz, but he did not follow through.

Russel pointed out that on Chinese social media, the hashtag "#HeChickenedOut" regarding Trump once became a trending keyword, and Chinese official media also promoted the message that Trump "blinked" and showed weakness in the face of Iranian confrontation.

Russel analyzed: "Beijing's current calculation is to wait and see, protecting China's energy and commercial interests, avoiding direct conflict with the United States, while maintaining good relations with important Gulf allies such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, and cooperating with the Iranian leadership that eventually comes to power after the dust settles."

Steve Bannon, who served as a senior advisor during Trump's first term, said that if Trump wants to achieve a lasting Iran peace agreement, he must pressure Xi Jinping.

Bannon noted on his podcast "War Room" this week: "Who can truly achieve and execute an agreement? I know a group of people who can do it, and they live in Beijing." He added: "We go directly to Beijing and talk to Xi Jinping, the person who can truly make the final decision and execute the agreement."