[RCIJ Risk Research] Over Half Repeatedly Fail in 'Fixed-Race' Decision Making

The Risk Communication Institute of Japan (Location: Minato-ku, Tokyo, Representative Director: Haruko Osugi, Abbreviation: RCIJ) conducted an 'Awareness Survey on Corporate Groupthink' targeting 276 business professionals. In 2026, where major corporate scandals occur one after another, there is growing interest in the underlying question: 'Why do organizations gathered with excellent people make strange decisions?'

It has been pointed out that the background of corporate scandals and decision-making mistakes lies not only in individual judgments but in problems stemming from the organizational structure itself. This survey was conducted with the aim of clarifying the relationship between the decision-making process within a company and the failures or public backlashes that arise there.

The resulting prominent facts are not only the repeated failures of 'fixed-race' organizations, but a more serious reality that in 'top-down' organizations, failures themselves are not even recognized. Furthermore, managers responded at a higher rate than general employees that they 'have experience keeping quiet even when feeling a sense of discomfort.'

Survey Results Summary:

1 | In 'fixed-race' decision making, 52.3% answered 'failed multiple times'. In top-down type, 51.0% answered 'do not remember failures'.

2 | Experience of hesitating and reading the room regarding organizational decisions: General employees 93.6%, Managers 98.1% answered 'yes'.

3 | About half perceive that dissenting opinions within the company are 'ignored'.

Survey Result 1 In organizations with 'fixed-race' decision making, failures are repeated (52.3%). In 'top-down' organizations, failures are not even recognized (51.0%).

Over half repeat failures in 'fixed-race' decision making -

When analyzing the relationship between the decision-making process and failure experience, 52.3% of respondents in organizations that conduct 'fixed-race' decision making where 'the conclusion is predetermined' answered that they 'have experienced failures and backlashes multiple times'.

On the other hand, in a 'top-down type (decision reporting type) where frontline opinions are not reflected', 51.0% answered that they 'do not remember failures', suggesting the possibility that the failures themselves are not recognized.

'Decision-making process' x 'Were there failures or backlashes regarding organizational decisions where you thought "If only we had stopped it then..."?'

From these results, it became clear that the 'format' of decision making greatly influences the state of 'recurrence' and 'recognition' of failures.

Survey Result 2 94.5% of total respondents have experience hesitating/reading the room. Over 98% of managers hesitated and kept quiet even when feeling discomfort about organizational decisions.

When surveying the presence or absence of hesitating/reading the room as behavioral realities in organizational decision making, over 90% answered they 'have experience hesitating'.

Among them, one in four answered that hesitating 'happens often'.

'Have you ever had the experience of feeling a sense of discomfort regarding an organizational decision but hesitating and keeping quiet?'

Furthermore, analyzing the same question by job title:

General employees: 93.6%, Managers: 98.1% answered 'have experience hesitating'.

It became clear that the reality is that managers are more likely to 'keep quiet even if they feel discomfort'.

'Job Title' x 'Have you ever felt a sense of discomfort regarding an organizational decision but hesitated and kept quiet?'

Survey Result 3 About half of business professionals perceive that 'dissenting opinions are ignored'.

Regarding how dissenting opinions are handled in company meetings,

about half answered, 'It is accepted as an opinion, but ignored'.

This revealed the reality that issue raising within the organization is not functioning sufficiently.

'If you raise a dissenting opinion or issue in a meeting, how do you think that person or opinion will be treated?'

From this, it became clear that in many organizations, there exists a 'structure that does not affect decision making' even if opinions exist.

Recommendations from an Expert (Haruko Osugi, Representative Director, Risk Communication Institute of Japan)

What drew my attention in this survey result is the fact that 'the higher the management level, the more they keep quiet'.

The hesitation experience rate is more than 10 points higher than general employees. I don't think this means managers have weaker willpower or are running for self-protection. While caught in the middle between expectations from above and responsibility to subordinates, they judge that 'saying something here won't change the situation'. Isn't this the result of accumulation?

And another thing that bothered me is that in top-down organizations, the response 'I don't remember failures' exceeded half. It's not that they aren't failing, but it flows by without being recognized as a failure. If this continues, neither reflection nor learning will occur. When you finally notice, it leads to a situation where it is thrust upon you from the outside in the form of a public backlash or scandal.

So, what should be done? We often hear talks about 'let's increase psychological safety', but I feel it's difficult with just that. Even if there is an atmosphere of 'it's okay to speak', if saying something changes nothing, people