Invesco Releases 2026 Mid-Year Global Market Outlook: 'A World in Disarray? Yet Unshaken Resilience'

June 17, 2026

Tokyo, Japan – Invesco Asset Management Ltd. has released its mid-year 2026 global market outlook titled 'A World in Disarray? Yet Unshaken Resilience,' forecasting a global economic rebound in the second half of the year.

2026 Mid-Year Global Market Outlook: 'A World in Disarray? Yet Unshaken Resilience'

The first half of 2026 was marked by a series of disruptive factors, including geopolitical fragmentation and disruptions in energy and commodity supplies. Despite these challenges, the global economy has maintained resilience, and corporate earnings have performed strongly—driven notably by the technology sector and the artificial intelligence (AI) investment boom.

Invesco’s Strategy & Insights team expects the global economy to re-accelerate in the second half of 2026, although the timing will depend on the restoration of energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

Key Global Economic Outlook and Major Macro Themes in Asia

The outlook notes that despite the resurgence of energy shocks and persistently high geopolitical risks, the global economy has proven more resilient than expected. While rising energy prices have pushed up overall inflation, the impact has been relatively contained due to the global economy’s lower energy intensity compared to the past. Regarding major Asian economies, the following outlooks are presented:

Japan: A more stable political environment is expected to support the implementation of fiscal measures, including increased defense spending, support for the technology sector, and consumption tax reductions. Despite rising inflation, monetary policy is expected to remain accommodative.

China: Advances in electricity usage and a diversified energy mix have made the country relatively less vulnerable to rising crude oil prices. China is well-positioned to benefit from the energy transition, a trend reflected in the strength of its 'new economy' sectors.

Exports centered on alternative energy technologies and electric vehicles are expected to continue growing robustly.

Key Investment Themes and Risks

The Strategy & Insights team highlights several critical themes for investment decisions in the second half of the year: market resilience, the U.S. dollar, emerging markets, artificial intelligence (AI), and alternative assets for income and diversification. On the other hand, key risks include a slowdown in AI investment, fiscal challenges in advanced economies, and unexpected acceleration in inflation.

Market Resilience

Despite periods of volatility in the first half of 2026, many major asset classes delivered positive returns, underscoring the importance of maintaining investment discipline amid uncertainty. The resumption of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a cyclical recovery, particularly in emerging markets and Europe. U.S. markets are expected to remain strong, although cyclical sectors such as materials and capital goods may underperform relatively.

U.S. Dollar Softness

The base scenario in the 2026 outlook continues to assume a weakening U.S. dollar. The dollar remains overvalued across many valuation metrics, making non-U.S. equities—especially in emerging markets—particularly attractive in this environment.

Emerging Markets

Emerging market assets are expected to perform steadily. Markets such as South Korea and Taiwan, which benefit from the AI theme, are particularly noteworthy.

Artificial Intelligence (AI)

AI remains a dominant theme across markets and economies, although its impact and investment avenues are evolving. The outlook favors investments in semiconductor and hardware companies, while adopting a more cautious stance toward software firms.

Alternative Investments for Income and Diversification

With inflation in many advanced economies running above pre-pandemic levels, opportunities exist in real estate and private credit. Direct lending, bank loans, and AAA-rated collateralized loan obligations (CLOs) may offer diversification benefits in the current environment.

Risk Factors

Nonetheless, risks such as a slowdown in AI-related capital expenditure, fiscal issues in advanced economies, and unexpected inflation acceleration warrant close attention.

The report reaffirms the lesson from past periods of uncertainty: the importance of maintaining diversified exposure to assets. The full report provides more detailed analysis. We encourage you to read it in full.

For more details, please visit:

https://www.invesco.com/jp/ja/insights/investment-outlook.html

Link to the 2026 Mid-Year Global Market Outlook 'A World in Disarray? Yet Unshaken Resilience':

https://www.invesco.com/content/dam/invesco/jp/ja/pdf/insights/investment-outlook/2026-mid-year/2026-Midyear-Investment-Outlook_JP.pdf

About Invesco

Invesco Ltd. (hereinafter 'Invesco') is one of the world’s leading independent global asset management firms, providing global investment capabilities. Invesco brings together a range of distinctive investment capabilities developed in global markets, offering comprehensive solutions by leveraging the group’s full strength to meet the investment needs of individual and institutional clients worldwide. Invesco operates in over 20 countries and is listed on the New York Stock Exchange (ticker: IVZ). More information about Invesco is available on its corporate website (in English).

https://www.invesco.com/corporate/en/home.html

About Invesco Asset Management Ltd.

Invesco Asset Management Ltd. is the Japanese subsidiary of Invesco, a leading independent global asset manager. The company provides a wide range of products and services to institutional investors in Japan, including public and corporate pension funds, corporations, banks, and insurance companies, covering traditional strategies such as equities and bonds, as well as non-traditional strategies like alternatives. It also offers mutual funds and services to individual investors through banks, securities firms, and insurance companies. More information about Invesco Asset Management Ltd. is available on its website.

https://www.invesco.com/jp/ja/

Additional Notes

This press release is intended solely to inform that Invesco Asset Management Ltd. has prepared a Japanese translation of a document originally created by its overseas affiliates. It is not a disclosure document under the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act. While the information is based on sources believed to be reliable, no assurance is given regarding its accuracy or completeness.

Mutual funds primarily invest in securities with fluctuating prices, such as domestic and foreign equities and corporate bonds. Since principal is not guaranteed, the net asset value per unit may fluctuate due to changes in market prices of the underlying assets or foreign exchange rates.